Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
In that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position and Settled Issues
In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite survey data indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on the EU
However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts
However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.
An Alarming Strategy and Strategic Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.
But, far from deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation & The Echo of 2018
All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Danger and A Prudent Memory
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be prudent of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.
