Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
